The SNP don't like to talk about the Oil market cycle, a price cycle that always moves up and down with the changing performance of the constantly moving World economy. They don't like to talk about it because they cannot control it, which was clearly shown in their previous Independence grossly over optimistic manifesto, when they predicted it would shortly reach a price of $130 per barrel, today though on 27 July 2015 it is $53 with the price still currently dropping again in the expection of Iranian Oil re-entering the market shortly after its Nuclear deal and the dropping of sanctions by Western powers.With additional Iranian Oil going to reach an alreadly oversupplied market glut the Oil price can only be expected to continue to keep falling. It has been predicted by some that the price per barrel could finally reach $40 or even $30 per barrel. This would have been disastrous for the finances of an Independent Scotland and would have meant heavy Income tax rises for all working families to make up the shortfall in the Scottish Governments spending budget.
The continuing Oil price fall is affecting investment in the North Sea as well as many job losses as companies cut back due to the oversupply of Oil into markets, an estimated 5,500 jobs have already been lost in UK compnaies and it has been estimated it may reach 10, 000 jobs lost.
The SNP independence manifesto deliberately used the highest figures available for the Oil price to produce an grossly overoptimistic view of how a Independent Scotlands financial situation would be. The falling Oil price though has shown what a childish and reckless attempt at over-egging the realities of an Independent Scotland Finances for one reason only ...to gain votes even though that plan has been now shown to have been seriously flawed with no calculations of risk included at all or even of any warnings to voters that the Oil price was variable and could fall with all the difficulties for Scots families that scenario would bring.
"Alex Salmond and Nicola Sturgeon also promised referendum voters that another “Oil boom was on the horizon, but the UK Office for Budget Responsinility said revenues are set to actually fall to 0.05 per cent of UK national wealth in 2015/16, which is the lowest figure in 40 years. "
"The impartial Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) dramatically revised down its predictions for how much oil and gas will generate for the rest of the decade, projecting the sector will only generate £600 million in 2016/17.
But the SNP Scottish Government’s White Paper on independence predicted that between £6.8 billion and £7.9 billion would flow into the public purse in 2015/16, when the SNP said Scotland would have become independent, up to 13 times more than it would have actually been. This was a dangerous and reckless deliberate presumption designed purely to influence the way a whole nation might Vote for political gain.
More info here http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scottish-independence/11481354/SNP-referendum-oil-figures-13-times-higher-than-reality.html
If Scotland had been already Independent when this Oil price fall had hit , not only would working families have had to bear the brunt of likely heavy Income Tax rises to make up the shortfall in the Scottish budget, Homeowners with Mortgages amongst the nation may have also had to cope with additional crippling interest rate rises that the Scottish Government of the day would likely have had to implement to protect against the value of its currency dropping which is essential for creating a stable exchange rate for any countries industries that trade with the rest of the World. To give some idea of just how disastrous this would have been to millions of Scottish families consider how any individual in Scotland would cope with a shock 15-17% Mortgage rate as this was the Bank exchange rate Russia had to implement to protect the value of its own currency due to its own shortfall in its own finances because of the falling Oil price last year. Russia's interest rate is still currently 12% six months later. Other Oil producing countries had to cope with similar problems. The UK overall escaped this because Oil is only 3-5% of UK GDP but would have been around 15-18% of an Independent Scotlands GDP , this is one of the realities and risks of being an Independent Scotland having to cope with World commodity shocks..would it really have been worth the risk of tens of thousands of Scots losing their Homes when they couldn't keep up mortgage payments due to punitive levels of interest rates? This could have brought complete misery to a whole nation but the SNP do not want you to consider the consequencies of this. There have been Oil shocks in past History and there will be more Oil shocks in the future as surely eggs are eggs and the Scottish Government has no means of protecting Homeowners from these if it were Independent when they happen, as they are outwith Government control. The only way to try to cope with shocks like these is to stay part of a much wider and broader Industrial economy where commodity shocks have a smaller effect on the economy as whole.
Russian Interest rates http://www.global-rates.com/interest-rates/central-banks/central-bank-russia/cbr-interest-rate.aspx
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1st September 2015 Latest Oil forecast reports suggest that the Oil price is heading lower to $30 per barrel ...down from over $100 per barrel in 2013 which will hit the Scottish budget even harder than in recent months .
http://www.profitconfidential.com/oil/wti-oil-price-forecast-get-ready-for-30-crude-again/
The low Oil prices effects on the Scottish economy ...
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/jeremy-warner/11231933/Low-oil-prices-are-burying-all-hope-of-future-Scottish-independence.html
Huge blow to Scotlands Spending budget http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2890251/Collapse-oil-price-left-independent-Scotland-15-5billion-short-Lib-Dem-minister-claims.html
Scotlands First Minister in Denial and burying her head in the Sand rather than telling the truth http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/jan/08/nicola-sturgeon-denies-oil-price-plunge-harm-scotland
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
More info here http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scottish-independence/11481354/SNP-referendum-oil-figures-13-times-higher-than-reality.html
If Scotland had been already Independent when this Oil price fall had hit , not only would working families have had to bear the brunt of likely heavy Income Tax rises to make up the shortfall in the Scottish budget, Homeowners with Mortgages amongst the nation may have also had to cope with additional crippling interest rate rises that the Scottish Government of the day would likely have had to implement to protect against the value of its currency dropping which is essential for creating a stable exchange rate for any countries industries that trade with the rest of the World. To give some idea of just how disastrous this would have been to millions of Scottish families consider how any individual in Scotland would cope with a shock 15-17% Mortgage rate as this was the Bank exchange rate Russia had to implement to protect the value of its own currency due to its own shortfall in its own finances because of the falling Oil price last year. Russia's interest rate is still currently 12% six months later. Other Oil producing countries had to cope with similar problems. The UK overall escaped this because Oil is only 3-5% of UK GDP but would have been around 15-18% of an Independent Scotlands GDP , this is one of the realities and risks of being an Independent Scotland having to cope with World commodity shocks..would it really have been worth the risk of tens of thousands of Scots losing their Homes when they couldn't keep up mortgage payments due to punitive levels of interest rates? This could have brought complete misery to a whole nation but the SNP do not want you to consider the consequencies of this. There have been Oil shocks in past History and there will be more Oil shocks in the future as surely eggs are eggs and the Scottish Government has no means of protecting Homeowners from these if it were Independent when they happen, as they are outwith Government control. The only way to try to cope with shocks like these is to stay part of a much wider and broader Industrial economy where commodity shocks have a smaller effect on the economy as whole.
Russian Interest rates http://www.global-rates.com/interest-rates/central-banks/central-bank-russia/cbr-interest-rate.aspx
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1st September 2015 Latest Oil forecast reports suggest that the Oil price is heading lower to $30 per barrel ...down from over $100 per barrel in 2013 which will hit the Scottish budget even harder than in recent months .
http://www.profitconfidential.com/oil/wti-oil-price-forecast-get-ready-for-30-crude-again/
The low Oil prices effects on the Scottish economy ...
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/jeremy-warner/11231933/Low-oil-prices-are-burying-all-hope-of-future-Scottish-independence.html
Huge blow to Scotlands Spending budget http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2890251/Collapse-oil-price-left-independent-Scotland-15-5billion-short-Lib-Dem-minister-claims.html
Scotlands First Minister in Denial and burying her head in the Sand rather than telling the truth http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/jan/08/nicola-sturgeon-denies-oil-price-plunge-harm-scotland
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
